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Royce Freeman Jersey , Mo. (AP) — Patrick Mahomes finally gets to face a team in an environment that’s familiar to him.The Chiefs‘ hotshot quarterback takes his record-setting show to Denver on Monday night to face the Broncos, the team he made his debut against in Week 17 last season.But whereas that game was mostly meaningless, with Kansas City assured of its playoff positioning and the Broncos’ season over, the trip back holds plenty of significance for both clubs.The Chiefs are 3-0 with two of those victories coming on the road, where their second-year star has been downright dynamite. The Broncos (2-1) are just a game back in the AFC West.“I mean, every game I go in I know that the defense is going to have some surprise they’re going to try to throw at us,” Mahomes said. “I know that defenses in this league are good and that defensive coordinators are going try to find ways to distract us and keep us from doing what we do.“But I know that if we run the game plan the right way and I get the ball out of my hands and to those guys,” he said, “there is a chance for success.”Especially if there’s a team he’s seen before.Then again, maybe it’s not such an advantage for Mahomes that he’s seen Denver already.The Chargers, Steelers and 49ers went into their games against Kansas City largely blind, unsure of what the strong-armed passer could do. The Broncos saw it firsthand last year, when the Chiefs rested their starters in their regular-season finale and Mahomes led a come-from-behind win.“He’s playing well. He’s got a bunch of weapons, and again, they have a good scheme also,” Denver coach Vance Joseph said.“You combine a quarterback’s arm talent with the skilled players he’s throwing to and with Andy Reid’s system, it makes it a tough out.”More broadly Courtland Sutton Jersey , the Chiefs have been an impossible out for the Broncos lately. They have won five straight in the series, including two in Denver and a Christmas Day rout in Kansas City.“They’ve got an explosive offense right now and their defense is making plays, too. For us, we’ve just got to go out there and play our game,” Broncos defensive tackle Shelby Harris said.“Last week is last week, I’m not really worried about that anymore,” he added. “Go out there and just focus on just doing what we have to do: sticking to our keys and making plays.”Indeed, the Broncos are coming off a road flop in Baltimore in which they blew a 14-10 halftime lead. And now the task is a Chiefs team that has scored at least 38 points in each of its games, with a quarterback in Mahomes who has an NFL-record 13 touchdown passes in the first three weeks.“They’re averaging almost 400 yards a game and almost 40 points,” Joseph said. “The quarterback is playing at a high level. He’s got multiple weapons. Along with Reid’s system, it’s going to be difficult for us to get them stopped.“We’re looking forward to the challenge, but being a six-point underdog, I’m not surprised. They’ve won the last three times in Denver. They’ve beaten the Broncos five straight times. I’m not surprised they’re favored. That means nothing.”As the Broncos try to end their streak of futility, here are some things to know:FAST STARTSThe Chiefs have scored on their first possession in every game this season, and they led San Francisco 35-7 late in the first half a week ago. Those quick starts stand in contrast to the Broncos, who have trailed entering the fourth quarter in each of their games.THE CASE FOR CASEThe Broncos gave Case Keenum a two-year, $36 million contract to play at the same level as he did last year in Minnesota. But so far Keenum is faring no better than Trevor Siemian Bradley Chubb Jersey , Brock Osweiler or Paxton Lynch. He’s completing just 61 percent of his passes with three TDs and five interceptions, including three in a Week 1 win over Seattle.TRACKING TRAVISChiefs tight end Travis Kelce is coming off back-to-back 100-yard receiving games, and he’s been good against Denver in the past. Two of his three career games with 130 yards or more have come against the Broncos.MEDICAL REPORTBroncos cornerback Tramaine Brock should be available after leaving last week’s game against Baltimore with a groin injury. His running mate, Adam Jones, was also expected to practice this week after being inactive for the Ravens with a thigh injury. Both would come in handy against Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and the rest of the Chiefs’ receiving group.WHAT A RUSHThe Chiefs had four sacks last week against San Francisco, more than double their total the first two weeks combined. But there’s a good chance they’ll be without pass rusher Dee Ford, who left last week with a groin injury, leaving it to Justin Houston to pick up the slack. Since 2000 their have been 116 hirings and firings of NFL head coaches - 38 of those have been “retread” head coaches (32.8%), meaning that they have been a head coach (not just interim) before in the NFL. That number is lower than I would have expected since it seems that the NFL keeps bringing around the same few tired head coaches and giving them one more shot. What this also means is that 78 of the head coaches hired this century in the NFL had zero NFL head coaching experience when they were hired (67.8%). Why is the relevant? There are five candidates that the Broncos are rumored to be interested in for the vacant head coaching spot of our franchise: Chuck Pagano, Vic Fangio, Mike Munchak, Zac Taylor and Brian Flores. Pagano and Munchak have been NFL head coaches before. The other three guys have not. That’s great, Joe. Why should we care? Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY SportsRon Chenoy-USA TODAY SportsThey ^^^^^ are why: in recent Bronco history we have hired two retreads, John Fox and Gary Kubiak, and two newbie head coaches in Josh McDaniel and Vance Joseph. By and large the retreads were successful while the newbies were not - both being fired during or immediately after their second season. So what does NFL history tell us about the success or failure of newbie head coaches vs retreads?Let’s delve into this. I looked at 74 (of the 400+) men who have been NFL head coaches - focusing mostly on coaches from the past 30 years. I used winning percentage as my main measure of success (although I was told I should use Super Bowl victories as a factor). I asked these questions:How many only coached for one franchise? - 23 of the 74. I was surprised there were that many, but quite a few of these guys coached 40-50 years ago. I also excluded guys who only were a head coach for one or two seasons. Every coach of the 74 has at least 40 wins. Note that Chuck Pagano has only coached for the Colts - and he has one of the lowest winning percentages on the list (one reason why he got fired). In his one season without a #1 overall pick playing QB for him (both Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck were #1 overall picks) his team went 4-12. I should also note that first time head coaches that failed miserably and were not given a second chance are not on this list Derek Wolfe Jersey , so it is skewed towards those who were successful enough to last at least four or five years with the team that gave them their first shot. 2. How many of these coaches improved in their second stint as a head coach?answer: 13 That is more than I would have expected. When coaches did improve in their second stint, the average was an improvement of 18% with Lou Saban having the biggest improvement (31%) while Andy Reid’s 9% improvement with the Chiefs is the lowest. Note that I did not count a change of 5% or less as an improvement (or degradation) of a coach’s winning percentage. The poster child for improvement in their second HC job (at least in the modern NFL) is Bill Belicheat. Mike Shanahan was also quite good in his second stint as a head coach as was John Fox - both in Denver. 3. How many had no change in their second HC job relative to their first? answer: 11Remember that if the change is 5% or less, I am not counting it as change. We can see that this list has two Hall of Fame coaches on it (Ewbanks and Allen) and one who will probably be in the Hall based on his two Super Bowl Victories (Tom Coughlin). I should note that while George Allen’s winning percentage did not change much, it was really good in both is head coaching stints. Oddly enough, Tom Coughlin’s was exactly the same in New York and in Jacksonville - 53.1%. 4. How many got worse in their second HC gig? answer: 27Wait, so more often than not, these guys do worse in their second gig? Why does the NFL keep recycling them then? answer: They are a “known” quantity and there is a hope that they can be the next Belicheat. That is one reason why Adam Gase and Josh McDaniels are both getting interest to fill one of the eight current head coaching vacancies in the NFL. Some of these coaches failed spectacularly in their second head coaching jobs - for various reasons. George Seifert went from a franchise loaded with talent (49ers) to a franchise bereft of it (Panthers) as did Steve Mariucci (49ers to Lions). Dom Capers went from a team that he built from the ground up (Panthers) to a team that he was unable to repeat that same building process (Texans). Tom Flores went from a team with a fanatical/activist owner (Faiders - where he won two Super Bowls) to a team with no real guidance from the owner or the GM (Seahawks).I should note that some of those who got worse in their second stint, improved in their 3rd stint - Bill Parcells, Pete Carroll, Jack Pardee and Norv Turner were all better in their 3rd head coaching positions in the NFL than in their second. So you have seen the data. Do you want to hire a retread in Pagano or Munchak? Do you want to give a long-time coordinator, Vic Fangio, his first shot as a head coach? Or do you want to give a young relatively unproven guy a shot as our head coach? Does hiring a coordinator from the Patriots, Brian Flores, still hold some distaste for you like it does for me? What about hiring a positional coach, Zac Taylor, who is not much older than our starting QB?
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